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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
1
1
1
3
0
0
3
3
3
1
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
6
21
32
59
0
0
3
3
8
21
36
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
0
11
33
11
11
11
33
0
0
33
33
33
11
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
9
32
49
91
0
0
5
5
12
32
55
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 3.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.81 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.500 true Heidke skill score: 0.112
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.587 true Kuipers skill score: 0.132
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.600
threat score:
0.222 0.356 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.250 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.189 0.049 0.039
probability of detection:
0.667 1.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.250 1.000 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.644 0.000
samples: 9 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 13.85 %coverage: 100.00