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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
7
2
3
3
8
0
2
2
4
4
7
8
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
7
6
15
33
54
0
2
2
4
8
19
38
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
16
37
11
16
16
42
0
11
11
21
21
37
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
5
11
9
23
51
83
0
3
3
6
12
29
58
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 1.14 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 2.84 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.069 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.073 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.222 0.250 0.200
threat score:
0.154 0.259 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.070 0.006 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.094 -0.019 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.500 0.429 0.250
probability of detection:
0.250 0.789 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.625 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.722 0.500
samples: 19 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 29.23 %coverage: 100.00