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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
2
4
7
0
3
1
4
1
6
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
8
15
36
59
0
3
1
4
8
19
38
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
8
15
8
15
31
54
0
23
8
31
8
46
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
12
23
55
91
0
5
2
6
12
29
58
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.17 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 3.11 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: -0.131
true Heidke skill score: -0.287 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: -0.131
true Kuipers skill score: -0.302 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.238 0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.054 -0.158 -0.118
equitable threat score:
-0.025 -0.049 -0.035
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.167
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.026
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.714 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.746 0.750
samples: 13 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00