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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
2
4
1
7
0
0
0
0
2
6
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
8
17
34
59
0
0
0
0
8
19
38
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
15
31
46
15
31
8
54
0
0
0
0
15
46
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
6
9
12
26
52
91
0
0
0
0
12
29
58
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.17 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 3.11 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.108
true Heidke skill score: -0.017 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.108
true Kuipers skill score: -0.019 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.444 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.279 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.130 0.133 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.429 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.712 0.000
samples: 13 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00