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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
5
17
3
6
3
12
0
2
6
8
9
14
14
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
5
17
5
11
24
40
0
2
6
8
11
19
35
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
16
14
46
8
16
8
32
0
5
16
22
24
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
8
26
8
17
37
62
0
3
9
12
17
29
54
100

hitrate: 0.486 hitrate: 0.354
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.89 0.86 0.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.55 2.11 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.230 Heidke skill score: 0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.249 true Heidke skill score: 0.089
Kuipers skill score: 0.230 Kuipers skill score: 0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.260 true Kuipers skill score: 0.106
threat score:
0.300 0.300 0.375
threat score:
0.273 0.229 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.118 0.094 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.163 -0.019 0.052
probability of detection:
0.667 0.429 0.429
probability of detection:
0.545 0.579 0.171
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.647 0.500 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.647 0.725 0.250
samples: 37 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 56.92 %coverage: 100.00