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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
3
9
0
3
3
6
0
2
0
2
2
9
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
3
9
9
13
32
54
0
2
0
2
11
19
35
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
24
18
53
0
18
18
35
0
12
0
12
12
53
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
5
14
14
20
49
83
0
3
0
3
17
29
54
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.231
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 0.67 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.82 2.84 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: -0.154
true Heidke skill score: 0.005 true Heidke skill score: -0.073
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: -0.154
true Kuipers skill score: 0.006 true Kuipers skill score: -0.087
threat score:
0.222 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.111 0.217 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.119 -0.020 -0.097
equitable threat score:
0.029 -0.063 -0.030
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.182 0.684 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.759 1.000
samples: 17 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 26.15 %coverage: 100.00