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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
7
18
0
3
1
4
0
0
0
0
6
8
8
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
7
18
5
14
28
47
0
0
0
0
11
19
35
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
23
32
82
0
14
5
18
0
0
0
0
27
36
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
8
11
28
8
22
43
72
0
0
0
0
17
29
54
100

hitrate: 0.409 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.64 2.47 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.114 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.169 true Heidke skill score: 0.067
Kuipers skill score: 0.114 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.181 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.333 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.261 0.269 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.083 0.205 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.148 0.007 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.375 0.000
probability of detection:
0.545 0.737 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.250 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.702 0.000
samples: 22 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 33.85 %coverage: 100.00