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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
21
28
4
3
2
9
1
1
1
3
6
10
24
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
21
28
12
11
11
34
1
1
1
3
14
18
33
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
15
53
70
10
8
5
23
3
3
3
8
15
25
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
32
43
18
17
17
52
2
2
2
5
22
28
51
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.200
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.67 0.90 0.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.89 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.312 Heidke skill score: -0.200
true Heidke skill score: -0.102 true Heidke skill score: -0.083
Kuipers skill score: -0.312 Kuipers skill score: -0.200
true Kuipers skill score: -0.146 true Kuipers skill score: -0.099
threat score:
0.030 0.188 0.038
threat score:
0.024 0.268 0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.055 -0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.144 0.050 -0.016
probability of detection:
0.167 0.300 0.042
probability of detection:
0.071 0.611 0.030
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.964 0.667 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.964 0.676 0.667
samples: 40 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 61.54 %coverage: 100.00