CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
5
12
2
4
2
8
1
1
8
10
8
7
15
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
5
12
8
15
20
43
1
1
8
10
14
18
33
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
7
17
40
7
13
7
27
3
3
27
33
27
23
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
8
18
12
23
31
66
2
2
12
15
22
28
51
100

hitrate: 0.567 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.14 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 2.39 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.350 Heidke skill score: 0.146
true Heidke skill score: 0.348 true Heidke skill score: 0.186
Kuipers skill score: 0.350 Kuipers skill score: 0.146
true Kuipers skill score: 0.370 true Kuipers skill score: 0.209
threat score:
0.333 0.364 0.471
threat score:
0.238 0.326 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.153 0.234 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.131 0.091 0.098
probability of detection:
0.625 0.571 0.533
probability of detection:
0.357 0.833 0.242
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.500 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.651 0.200
samples: 30 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 46.15 %coverage: 100.00