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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
14
15
29
58
0
0
0
0
14
18
33
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
38
50
88
0
0
13
13
0
0
0
0
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
6
11
22
23
45
89
0
0
0
0
22
28
51
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.231
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.22 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.154
true Heidke skill score: -0.049 true Heidke skill score: -0.054
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.154
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.246 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.103 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.077 -0.024 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.741 0.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00