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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
5
5
1
1
1
3
2
2
6
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
2
16
41
59
1
1
1
3
4
18
42
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
0
20
0
0
50
50
10
10
10
30
20
20
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
3
25
64
92
2
2
2
5
6
28
66
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.28 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.214 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.200 0.262 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.231 -0.167 -0.129
equitable threat score:
0.179 -0.013 -0.023
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.167
probability of detection:
0.250 0.889 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.729 0.667
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00