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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
12
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
12
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
12
16
2
16
31
49
0
0
0
0
3
19
43
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
19
75
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
19
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
18
25
3
25
48
75
0
0
0
0
5
29
66
100

hitrate: 0.062 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
16.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.33 2.58 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.406 Heidke skill score: -0.108
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.039
Kuipers skill score: -0.406 Kuipers skill score: -0.108
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.062 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.056 0.308 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.045 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.842 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.673 0.000
samples: 16 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 24.62 %coverage: 100.00