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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
1
5
6
0
0
0
0
1
1
6
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
2
19
42
63
0
0
0
0
3
19
43
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
13
25
0
13
63
75
0
0
0
0
13
13
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
3
3
29
65
97
0
0
0
0
5
29
66
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 6.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 3.32 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.308 true Kuipers skill score: 0.048
threat score:
0.500 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.250 0.302 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.429 0.048 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.232 0.013 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.698 0.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00