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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
3
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
0
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
3
4
0
5
53
58
0
0
2
2
1
5
58
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
50
67
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
17
0
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
5
6
0
8
83
91
0
0
3
3
2
8
91
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 -- 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 11.60 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.313
true Heidke skill score: 0.182 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.313
true Kuipers skill score: 0.400 true Kuipers skill score: 0.144
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.250 0.086 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.238 0.009 0.003
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
1.000 1.000 0.034
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.914 0.000
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00