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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
1
0
3
4
0
0
0
0
1
1
9
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
1
6
51
58
0
0
0
0
1
7
57
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
55
64
9
0
27
36
0
0
0
0
9
9
82
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
9
11
2
9
78
89
0
0
0
0
2
11
88
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.092
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 4.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 8.29 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.362
true Heidke skill score: -0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.362
true Kuipers skill score: -0.289 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.102 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.086 -0.078 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.014 -0.005 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.897 0.000
samples: 11 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 16.92 %coverage: 100.00