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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
7
9
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
8
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
7
9
0
6
50
56
0
0
0
0
1
7
57
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
70
90
0
0
10
10
0
0
0
0
10
10
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
11
14
0
9
77
86
0
0
0
0
2
11
88
100

hitrate: 0.100 hitrate: 0.108
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.00 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.00 8.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.350 Heidke skill score: -0.338
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.350 Kuipers skill score: -0.338
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.111 0.105 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.053 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.097 -0.001 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.893 0.000
samples: 10 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 15.38 %coverage: 100.00