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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
15
16
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
3
2
0
18
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
15
16
0
1
44
45
1
0
2
3
2
1
61
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
75
80
0
0
5
5
5
0
10
15
10
0
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
23
25
0
2
69
70
2
0
3
5
3
2
95
100

hitrate: 0.150 hitrate: 0.062
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 -- 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 45.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.275 Heidke skill score: -0.406
true Heidke skill score: -0.083 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.275 Kuipers skill score: -0.406
true Kuipers skill score: -0.361 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.059 0.000 0.105
threat score:
0.059 0.022 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.000 -0.043
equitable threat score:
0.030 0.007 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.111
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.978 0.333
samples: 20 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 31.25 %coverage: 100.00