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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
2
2
1
0
2
3
1
0
7
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
1
56
58
1
0
2
3
2
1
61
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
38
38
0
0
25
25
13
0
25
38
13
0
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
2
2
88
91
2
0
3
5
3
2
95
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.047
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 -- 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 58.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.430
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.430
true Kuipers skill score: -0.571 true Kuipers skill score: -0.149
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.103 0.000 -0.116
equitable threat score:
-0.019 0.002 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.983 0.333
samples: 8 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00