CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
10
10
1
0
4
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
14
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
10
10
1
3
51
55
0
0
0
0
1
3
61
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
67
67
7
0
27
33
0
0
0
0
7
0
93
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
15
15
2
5
78
85
0
0
0
0
2
5
94
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.046
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
10.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
10.00 18.33 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.431
true Heidke skill score: -0.047 true Heidke skill score: 0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.431
true Kuipers skill score: -0.357 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.055 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.065 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.945 0.000
samples: 15 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 23.08 %coverage: 100.00