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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
16
17
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
1
2
17
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
16
17
2
16
26
44
1
1
0
2
3
18
42
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
80
85
0
0
5
5
5
5
0
10
5
10
85
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
25
27
3
25
41
70
2
2
0
3
5
29
67
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
17.00 0.50 0.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.67 2.44 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.153 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.348 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.050 -0.034 -0.098
equitable threat score:
-0.042 0.103 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.636 1.000
samples: 20 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 31.75 %coverage: 100.00