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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
12
33
46
0
1
1
2
1
1
0
2
2
14
34
50

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
12
33
46
1
5
9
15
1
1
0
2
3
18
42
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
24
66
92
0
2
2
4
2
2
0
4
4
28
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
19
52
73
2
8
14
24
2
2
0
3
5
29
67
100

hitrate: 0.040 hitrate: 0.095
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
23.00 0.14 0.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
15.33 0.83 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.440 Heidke skill score: -0.357
true Heidke skill score: -0.038 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: -0.440 Kuipers skill score: -0.357
true Kuipers skill score: -0.077 true Kuipers skill score: -0.061
threat score:
0.021 0.067 0.000
threat score:
0.021 0.179 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.019 0.030 -0.039
equitable threat score:
-0.026 0.030 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.500 0.071 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.278 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.978 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.978 0.667 1.000
samples: 50 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 79.37 %coverage: 100.00