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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
13
18
34
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
14
20
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
13
18
34
0
5
24
29
0
0
0
0
3
18
42
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
35
49
92
0
3
5
8
0
0
0
0
8
38
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
21
29
54
0
8
38
46
0
0
0
0
5
29
67
100

hitrate: 0.108 hitrate: 0.127
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.33 0.21 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.33 1.61 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.338 Heidke skill score: -0.310
true Heidke skill score: 0.003 true Heidke skill score: -0.036
Kuipers skill score: -0.338 Kuipers skill score: -0.310
true Kuipers skill score: 0.005 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.088 0.062 0.000
threat score:
0.088 0.119 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.009 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.097 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.071 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.278 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.912 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.912 0.828 0.000
samples: 37 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 58.73 %coverage: 100.00