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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
3
1
4
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
2
14
40
56
1
2
0
3
3
18
42
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
25
50
0
0
13
13
13
25
0
38
13
50
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
3
22
63
89
2
3
0
5
5
29
67
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.222
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.25 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 3.11 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.167
true Heidke skill score: -0.362 true Heidke skill score: -0.094
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.167
true Kuipers skill score: -0.447 true Kuipers skill score: -0.141
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.233 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.111 -0.111 -0.231
equitable threat score:
-0.028 -0.045 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 1.000
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00