CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
3
14
1
2
1
4
0
0
0
0
3
11
4
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
3
14
6
22
22
50
0
0
0
0
8
31
25
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
50
17
78
6
11
6
22
0
0
0
0
17
61
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
5
22
9
34
34
78
0
0
0
0
13
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.67 0.36 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 1.61 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.079 true Kuipers skill score: -0.052
threat score:
0.133 0.154 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.373 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.042 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.064 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.182 0.000
probability of detection:
0.250 0.710 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.560 0.000
samples: 18 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 28.12 %coverage: 100.00