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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
7
25
1
0
1
2
0
3
0
3
5
17
8
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
7
25
4
14
18
36
0
3
0
3
8
31
25
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
47
23
83
3
0
3
7
0
10
0
10
17
57
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
22
11
39
6
22
28
56
0
5
0
5
13
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.133 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.12 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.12 1.16 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.300 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.088 true Heidke skill score: -0.088
Kuipers skill score: -0.300 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.121 true Kuipers skill score: -0.098
threat score:
0.154 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.138 0.264 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.008 -0.063 -0.078
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.097 -0.044
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.452 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.840 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.840 0.611 1.000
samples: 30 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 46.88 %coverage: 100.00