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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
16
27
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
9
18
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
16
27
6
22
9
37
0
0
0
0
8
31
25
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
30
53
90
3
0
7
10
0
0
0
0
10
30
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
25
42
9
34
14
58
0
0
0
0
13
48
39
100

hitrate: 0.067 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.00 0.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.38 1.19 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.061 true Heidke skill score: 0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.099 true Kuipers skill score: 0.071
threat score:
0.071 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.478 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.028 -0.081 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.046 0.145 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.250 0.710 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.926 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.926 0.405 0.000
samples: 30 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 46.88 %coverage: 100.00