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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
6
1
17
0
2
4
6
0
4
4
8
10
12
9
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
6
1
17
6
21
12
39
0
4
4
8
16
31
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
32
19
3
55
0
6
13
19
0
13
13
26
32
39
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
9
2
27
9
33
19
61
0
6
6
13
25
48
27
100

hitrate: 0.516 hitrate: 0.547
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.70 0.50 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.06 1.26 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.274 Heidke skill score: 0.320
true Heidke skill score: 0.281 true Heidke skill score: 0.251
Kuipers skill score: 0.274 Kuipers skill score: 0.320
true Kuipers skill score: 0.286 true Kuipers skill score: 0.241
threat score:
0.588 0.125 0.308
threat score:
0.435 0.429 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.392 -0.024 0.157
equitable threat score:
0.307 0.070 0.099
probability of detection:
1.000 0.167 0.444
probability of detection:
0.625 0.677 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.412 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.412 0.462 0.500
samples: 31 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 48.44 %coverage: 100.00