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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
3
19
0
5
3
8
0
3
3
6
9
15
9
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
3
19
7
21
11
39
0
3
3
6
16
31
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
21
9
58
0
15
9
24
0
9
9
18
27
45
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
11
5
30
11
33
17
61
0
5
5
9
25
48
27
100

hitrate: 0.515 hitrate: 0.516
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.11 0.53 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.19 1.26 0.35
Heidke skill score: 0.273 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.290 true Heidke skill score: 0.200
Kuipers skill score: 0.273 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.308 true Kuipers skill score: 0.192
threat score:
0.474 0.278 0.250
threat score:
0.346 0.429 0.150
equitable threat score:
0.276 0.095 0.132
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.070 0.076
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.333
probability of detection:
0.562 0.677 0.176
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.526 0.375 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.526 0.462 0.500
samples: 33 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 51.56 %coverage: 100.00