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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
4
15
0
1
4
5
0
3
0
3
8
7
8
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
4
15
8
25
13
46
0
3
0
3
16
31
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
13
17
65
0
4
17
22
0
13
0
13
35
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
6
23
13
39
20
72
0
5
0
5
25
48
27
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.516
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.88 0.71 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 1.48 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.080 true Heidke skill score: 0.166
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.080 true Kuipers skill score: 0.153
threat score:
0.533 0.091 0.000
threat score:
0.348 0.481 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.284 -0.055 -0.105
equitable threat score:
0.221 0.091 -0.041
probability of detection:
1.000 0.143 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.806 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 0.800 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 0.457 1.000
samples: 23 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 35.94 %coverage: 100.00