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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
7
16
1
1
1
3
0
0
2
2
5
6
10
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
7
16
21
19
6
46
0
0
2
2
25
24
15
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
24
33
76
5
5
5
14
0
0
10
10
24
29
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
8
11
25
33
30
9
72
0
0
3
3
39
38
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.20 0.50 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 1.92 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.090 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.104 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.235 0.125 0.200
threat score:
0.108 0.373 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.014 0.020 0.116
equitable threat score:
-0.073 0.052 0.105
probability of detection:
0.800 0.167 0.200
probability of detection:
0.160 0.792 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.587 0.000
samples: 21 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 32.81 %coverage: 100.00