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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
4
2
4
10
7
7
5
19
13
9
11
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
16
17
8
41
7
7
5
19
25
24
15
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
6
12
12
6
12
30
21
21
15
58
39
27
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
25
27
13
64
11
11
8
30
39
38
23
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 1.11 1.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 1.71 1.27
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.073 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.075 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.133 0.118 0.200
threat score:
0.074 0.354 0.172
equitable threat score:
0.032 -0.051 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.050 0.022
probability of detection:
0.154 0.222 0.455
probability of detection:
0.080 0.708 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.800 0.737
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.585 0.737
samples: 33 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 51.56 %coverage: 100.00