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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
1
9
0
3
8
11
1
1
2
4
7
6
11
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
1
9
18
21
12
51
1
1
2
4
25
24
15
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
8
4
38
0
13
33
46
4
4
8
17
29
25
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
2
14
28
33
19
80
2
2
3
6
39
38
23
100

hitrate: 0.458 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 1.83 0.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.12 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.188 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: 0.226 true Heidke skill score: 0.134
Kuipers skill score: 0.188 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: 0.246 true Kuipers skill score: 0.130
threat score:
0.600 0.214 0.154
threat score:
0.214 0.389 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.458 0.022 0.015
equitable threat score:
0.101 0.054 0.066
probability of detection:
0.857 0.500 0.182
probability of detection:
0.240 0.875 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.727 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.588 0.500
samples: 24 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00