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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
4
4
1
3
5
9
4
4
11
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
10
16
24
50
1
3
5
9
14
20
31
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
5
11
32
0
0
21
21
5
16
26
47
21
21
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
3
9
15
25
37
77
2
5
8
14
22
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.369
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.00 0.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 2.50 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.054
true Heidke skill score: 0.059 true Heidke skill score: 0.069
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.054
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.074
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.176 0.296 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.303 -0.118 -0.022
equitable threat score:
0.109 0.016 0.023
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.455
probability of detection:
0.214 0.800 0.161
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.680 0.444
samples: 19 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 29.23 %coverage: 100.00