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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
3
9
3
15
4
2
9
15
8
11
12
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
9
18
22
49
4
2
9
15
14
20
31
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
10
29
10
48
13
6
29
48
26
35
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
28
34
75
6
3
14
23
22
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.613 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 1.36 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.45 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.419 Heidke skill score: 0.146
true Heidke skill score: 0.388 true Heidke skill score: 0.131
Kuipers skill score: 0.419 Kuipers skill score: 0.146
true Kuipers skill score: 0.373 true Kuipers skill score: 0.135
threat score:
0.125 0.529 0.500
threat score:
0.071 0.353 0.243
equitable threat score:
0.096 0.315 0.262
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.081 0.062
probability of detection:
0.125 0.818 0.750
probability of detection:
0.071 0.900 0.290
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.400 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.633 0.400
samples: 31 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 47.69 %coverage: 100.00