CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
6
4
9
13
26
6
10
16
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
11
18
39
4
9
13
26
14
20
31
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
3
9
19
13
28
41
81
19
31
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
17
28
60
6
14
20
40
22
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.369
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.60 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.95 0.84
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.054
true Heidke skill score: -0.051 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.054
true Kuipers skill score: -0.044 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.448
threat score:
0.000 0.229 0.295
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.100 0.812
probability of detection:
0.000 0.550 0.419
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.718 0.500
samples: 32 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 49.23 %coverage: 100.00