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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
11
18
2
1
0
3
1
3
0
4
6
8
11
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
11
18
5
20
18
43
1
3
0
4
9
27
29
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
44
72
8
4
0
12
4
12
0
16
24
32
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
17
28
8
31
28
66
2
5
0
6
14
42
45
100

hitrate: 0.160 hitrate: 0.354
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.38 0.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.59 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.260 Heidke skill score: 0.031
true Heidke skill score: -0.169 true Heidke skill score: 0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.260 Kuipers skill score: 0.031
true Kuipers skill score: -0.188 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.143 0.100 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.079 0.004 -0.133
equitable threat score:
0.024 0.067 -0.057
probability of detection:
0.500 0.125 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.741 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.535 1.000
samples: 25 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 38.46 %coverage: 100.00