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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
2
2
2
6
1
1
0
2
5
3
4
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
6
26
27
59
1
1
0
2
9
27
29
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
0
17
33
17
17
17
50
8
8
0
17
42
25
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
9
40
42
91
2
2
0
3
14
42
45
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 2.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 2.19 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.146
true Heidke skill score: 0.020 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.146
true Kuipers skill score: 0.021 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.286 0.286 0.000
threat score:
0.182 0.433 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.091 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.138 0.042 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.400 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.963 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.559 1.000
samples: 12 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 18.46 %coverage: 100.00