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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
3
0
0
3
1
2
6
9
5
3
6
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
7
24
23
54
1
2
6
9
9
27
29
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
0
14
21
0
0
21
7
14
43
64
36
21
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
11
37
35
83
2
3
9
14
14
42
45
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.477
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 1.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.00 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.215
true Heidke skill score: 0.203 true Heidke skill score: 0.112
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.215
true Kuipers skill score: 0.198 true Kuipers skill score: 0.108
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.100 0.421 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.054 -0.120 0.417
equitable threat score:
0.074 0.045 0.071
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.111 0.889 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.556 0.333
samples: 14 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 21.54 %coverage: 100.00