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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
5
12
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
5
6
7
7
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
5
12
1
11
36
48
3
1
1
5
6
17
42
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
25
25
60
5
5
5
15
15
5
5
25
30
35
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
8
18
2
17
55
74
5
2
2
8
9
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.215
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.43 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 2.82 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.177
true Heidke skill score: -0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.060
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.177
true Kuipers skill score: -0.180 true Kuipers skill score: -0.088
threat score:
0.125 0.111 0.091
threat score:
0.125 0.204 0.022
equitable threat score:
-0.129 -0.006 -0.081
equitable threat score:
0.060 -0.037 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.333 0.143 0.143
probability of detection:
0.333 0.647 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.667 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.771 0.800
samples: 20 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 30.77 %coverage: 100.00