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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
1
0
1
3
0
0
3
4
2
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
2
16
41
59
3
0
0
3
6
17
42
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
14
14
43
0
14
0
14
43
0
0
43
57
29
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
3
25
63
91
5
0
0
5
9
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.50 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.47 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.108
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.108
true Kuipers skill score: -0.107 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.167 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.125 0.267 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.167 0.417 -0.120
equitable threat score:
0.094 0.013 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.250 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.729 1.000
samples: 7 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 10.77 %coverage: 100.00