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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
3
2
0
5
0
0
1
1
4
2
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
5
17
39
61
0
0
1
1
6
17
42
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
22
33
33
22
0
56
0
0
11
11
44
22
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
8
26
60
94
0
0
2
2
9
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 2.50 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.59 0.02
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.196 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.212 true Kuipers skill score: 0.065
threat score:
0.167 0.400 0.333
threat score:
0.125 0.279 0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.229 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.094 0.023 0.009
probability of detection:
0.250 1.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.167 1.000 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.600 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.721 0.000
samples: 9 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 13.85 %coverage: 100.00