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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
10
14
1
4
13
18
0
3
9
12
3
9
32
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
10
14
1
9
29
39
0
3
9
12
3
14
48
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
23
32
2
9
30
41
0
7
20
27
7
20
73
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
15
22
2
14
45
60
0
5
14
18
5
22
74
100

hitrate: 0.341 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.67 2.00 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.67 2.79 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.011 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.053 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.011 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.088 true Kuipers skill score: 0.079
threat score:
0.133 0.174 0.257
threat score:
0.133 0.205 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.074 0.016 0.010
equitable threat score:
0.094 0.017 0.003
probability of detection:
0.667 0.444 0.281
probability of detection:
0.667 0.643 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.778 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.769 0.250
samples: 44 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 67.69 %coverage: 100.00