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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
14
17
0
1
3
4
1
3
1
5
2
6
18
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
14
17
1
9
33
43
1
3
1
5
3
14
48
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
54
65
0
4
12
15
4
12
4
19
8
23
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
22
26
2
14
51
66
2
5
2
8
5
22
74
100

hitrate: 0.115 hitrate: 0.169
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.50 0.67 0.28
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.67 3.07 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.327 Heidke skill score: -0.246
true Heidke skill score: -0.133 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: -0.327 Kuipers skill score: -0.246
true Kuipers skill score: -0.224 true Kuipers skill score: -0.104
threat score:
0.056 0.111 0.045
threat score:
0.053 0.188 0.019
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.010 -0.133
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.007 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.500 0.167 0.056
probability of detection:
0.333 0.643 0.021
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.750 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.791 0.800
samples: 26 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00