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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
14
17
0
2
4
6
1
2
0
3
2
6
18
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
14
17
1
10
34
45
1
2
0
3
3
14
48
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
54
65
0
8
15
23
4
8
0
12
8
23
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
22
26
2
15
52
69
2
3
0
5
5
22
74
100

hitrate: 0.115 hitrate: 0.169
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.50 1.00 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.67 3.21 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.327 Heidke skill score: -0.246
true Heidke skill score: -0.083 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.327 Kuipers skill score: -0.246
true Kuipers skill score: -0.147 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.056 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.053 0.204 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.071 -0.110
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.008 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.500 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.714 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.941 0.778 1.000
samples: 26 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00