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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
8
31
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
15
8
10
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
8
31
8
6
19
33
0
0
0
0
23
14
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
45
24
24
94
0
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
45
24
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
13
13
48
13
9
30
52
0
0
0
0
36
22
42
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.07 0.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.35 2.36 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.023 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.020 true Kuipers skill score: 0.064
threat score:
0.484 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.385 0.146 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.054 -0.051 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.139 -0.036 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.652 0.429 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.516 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.516 0.818 0.000
samples: 33 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 51.56 %coverage: 100.00