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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
6
12
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
5
1
7
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
6
12
18
13
21
52
0
0
0
0
23
14
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
8
46
92
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
38
8
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
9
19
28
20
33
81
0
0
0
0
36
22
42
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.40 1.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.52 3.71 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: 0.037 true Heidke skill score: 0.048
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: 0.043 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.417 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.167 0.245 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.052 -0.040 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.039 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.217 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.750 0.000
samples: 13 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 20.31 %coverage: 100.00