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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
1
5
14
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
8
1
7
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
1
5
14
15
13
21
49
0
0
1
1
23
14
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
6
31
88
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
6
50
6
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
2
8
22
23
20
33
77
0
0
2
2
36
22
42
100

hitrate: 0.562 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 1.00 0.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.61 3.50 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.344 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.176 true Heidke skill score: 0.122
Kuipers skill score: 0.344 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.169 true Kuipers skill score: 0.141
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.276 0.260 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.143 -0.032 0.086
equitable threat score:
0.124 0.058 0.022
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.348 0.929 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.735 0.000
samples: 16 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00