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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
3
10
1
0
3
4
1
0
0
1
8
1
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
1
3
10
16
13
24
53
1
0
0
1
23
14
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
7
20
67
7
0
20
27
7
0
0
7
53
7
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
5
16
25
20
38
83
2
0
0
2
36
22
42
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.297
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 4.00 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 3.79 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.055
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.055
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.082
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.222 0.241 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.100 -0.056 -0.061
equitable threat score:
0.103 0.033 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.261 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.755 1.000
samples: 15 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 23.44 %coverage: 100.00