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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
1
17
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
9
8
1
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
1
17
11
25
11
47
0
0
0
0
19
33
12
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
44
44
6
94
6
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
50
44
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
13
2
27
17
39
17
73
0
0
0
0
30
52
19
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.516
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.89 0.12 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 1.42 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: -0.104 true Heidke skill score: 0.107
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: -0.096 true Kuipers skill score: 0.095
threat score:
0.444 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.286 0.455 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.053 -0.052 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.129 0.025 0.000
probability of detection:
0.889 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.421 0.758 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.529 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.529 0.468 0.000
samples: 18 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 28.12 %coverage: 100.00