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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
18
33
10
61
0
0
0
0
19
33
12
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
67
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
28
52
16
95
0
0
0
0
30
52
19
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.531
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 1.85 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.297
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.297
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.042
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.048 0.541 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.005 0.052 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.053 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.459 0.000
samples: 3 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 4.69 %coverage: 100.00